“The Crux of it” blogUnpacking the 2026 midterm results: What they mean for your projects and investments
Voters sent a clear message on November 3: energy costs matter. More than four in five voters cited gas and diesel prices and utility bills as factors in their vote, according to NBC News exit polling, and leaders in both parties have already acknowledged the role energy prices played. At the time of writing, Democrats hold 54 Senate seats and 237 House seats, giving them control of both chambers. The question now is how that message translates into policy.
The morning after the election, Crux’s Head of Policy Hasan Nazar moderated a webinar with:
- Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel at Cornerstone Government Affairs
- Liam Donovan, Head of Risk and Reputation at Targeted Victory
- Tim Fox, Director of Market Intelligence at Crux
The panel covered what the results mean for energy legislation, permitting reform, tax credits, and data centers. Here are three takeaways from the conversation, which is now available on demand.
Energy affordability will set the agenda for the 120th Congress
Panelists expect energy debates in the next Congress to center on who pays for electricity and who benefits from federal policy. That points to oversight of US Department of Energy funding clawbacks for clean energy projects, scrutiny of large-load customers like data centers, and more congressional attention on grid operators such as PJM. With 60 votes still required in the Senate, most wins will come through must-pass vehicles or negotiation with the White House.
Tax credits are part of that negotiation. The advanced manufacturing credit (§45X) came through the One Big Beautiful Bill largely intact, and at least six bills in the current Congress would expand it. Panelists see 2027 as a realistic window. Implementation capacity is the constraint to watch: the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) has lost about 300 staff over the past two years, and the US Department of the Treasury and the Internal Revenue Service (IRS) are similarly stretched.
Further reading: Download Crux's State of the Clean Economy Supply Chain whitepaper
Permitting reform faces its first test on November 9
The Bipartisan American Affordability and Jobs Act (BAAJA) is one of the most comprehensive permitting packages the Senate has considered in years, and a Senate vote is scheduled for November 9. It goes further than the Energy Permitting Reform Act of 2024 (EPRA), which cleared committee 15–4 but never reached the floor. BAAJA adds:
- Stronger National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) review deadlines
- An overhaul of the National Historic Preservation Act
- Ratepayer protection provisions and greater project certainty
The coalition behind it is broader, too. Data centers and tribes now have a seat at the table, and electric cooperatives and municipal utilities have endorsed the package, alongside trade associations and advocacy groups that frequently disagree.
The risk is timing. In 2024, Republicans let EPRA stall while positioning for a better deal under unified control. Now some Democrats, including Representative Jared Huffman (D-CA), have suggested waiting until Democrats hold the gavel, and Senator Mark Kelly (D-AZ) has questioned whether to act now. The panel discussed that a deal pulled further toward Democrats risks losing both the coalition and a presidential signature.
"For developers, permitting decides whether a project meets its timeline, whether it gets to keep its … eligibility for tax credits, whether it can secure financing.” — Tim Fox, Director of Market Intelligence at Crux
A manager’s amendment is taking shape, and Senate negotiators are meeting weekly with the White House. Panelists agreed that a large Democratic vote in the Senate is the best predictor of passage in the House, where a lame-duck attendance problem could complicate the math.
Further reading: Download Crux's The Impact of Federal Permitting on Clean Energy Development whitepaper
States will set the rules for data centers
Panelists expect political pressure around data centers to continue now that the campaigns are over. At the federal level, a proposed nationwide moratorium is unlikely to pass. Provisions requiring data centers to cover the grid costs they create, along with water and power disclosure requirements, have a better shot.
Most of the action will happen in the states, which retain significant authority over data centers as retail rate customers. States that offered tax exemptions to attract data centers two or three years ago are now looking to repeal them and set new conditions. In Texas, the current freeze may extend through the end of May 2027.
Catch up on the full conversation
Panelists also discussed what expanded §45X supply could mean for pricing and how a large class of new members and staff will face a steep learning curve, particularly on tax policy.
That learning curve arrives at a consequential moment. Voters made energy affordability a deciding issue on November 3, and industry is looking to Congress for action on permitting, tax policy, and data center costs. Sarah Venuto, Principal and Counsel at Cornerstone Government Affairs, encouraged subject matter experts to help new lawmakers get up to speed. Her message for Congress: the capital markets are watching “closer than ever right now.” For tax credit buyers, developers, and lenders planning 2027 transactions, what Congress does with that mandate over the next few months will shape the market.
